India’s population in 2050: extreme projections demand extreme actions

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Ranjit Goswami, IMT, Nagpur

In 2050 India’s population is projected to be 1.69 billion — China’s will be 1.31 billion.
India has experienced extraordinary population growth: between 2001 and 2011 India added 181 million people to the world, slightly less than the entire population of Brazil. But 76 per cent of India’s population lives on less than US$2 per day (at purchasing power parity rates). India ranks at the bottom of the pyramid in per capita-level consumption indicators not only in energy or electricity but in almost all other relevant per capita-level consumption indicators, despite high rates of growth in the last decade.

Much of India’s population increase has occurred among the poorest socio-economic percentile. Relatively socio-economically advanced Indian states had a fertility rate of less than 2.1 in 2009 — less than the level needed to maintain a stable population following infant mortality standards in developed nations. But in poorer states like Bihar, fertility rates were nearer to 4.0.

Does this growth mean India can rely on the ‘demographic dividend’ to spur development? This phenomenon, which refers to the period in which a large proportion of a country’s population is of working age, is said to have accounted for between one-fourth and two-fifths of East Asia’s ‘economic miracle’ as observed late last century.

But India is not East Asia. Its population density is almost three times the average in East Asia and more than eight times the world average of 45 people per square kilometre. If India has anywhere near 1.69 billion people in 2050, it will have more than 500 people per square kilometre. Besides, in terms of infrastructure development India currently is nowhere near where East Asian nations were before their boom. In terms of soft to hard infrastructure, spanning education, healthcare, roads, electricity, housing, employment growth and more, India is visibly strained.

For example, India has an installed energy capacity of little more than 200 gigawatts; China has more than 1000 gigawatts and aims to generate 600 gigawatts of clean electricity by 2020. To make matters worse, many of the newly installed power stations in India face an acute shortage of coal, and future supply is not guaranteed. China mines close to four billion tonnes of coal per year, which has a negative effect on both local and global air quality. At some stage, it is probably inevitable that India will need much greater capacity than its present rate of mining 600 million tonnes of coal per year, which is also causing local and global pollution levels to rise — parts of India face air quality problems similar to those in China. On oil, India imports close to 80 per cent of its crude oil requirements, while it also runs an unsustainable current account deficit of more than 5 per cent of its GDP, and reserves for new energy sources like shale gas do not look promising either.

India’s food supply is in an even worse position. As a member of India’s Planning Commission put it, ‘we have a problem and it can be starkly put in the following way: around 2004–2005, our per capita food grains production was back to the 1970s level’. In 2005–07, the average Indian consumed only 2,300 calories per day — below the defined poverty line in rural areas of 2,400 calories a day. The trend in recent years is for Indians to eat even less.

So, for India, treating lightly Malthusian predictions about food supply until 2050 or beyond may not be prudent. Worldwide food prices have been on the rise to unforeseen levels, and India too has been suffering from high food inflation.

Finally, even if India manages to feed its burgeoning population, its growth may not be ecologically sustainable. The global demand for water in 2050 is projected to be more than 50 per cent of what it was in 2000, and demand for food will double. On average, a thousand tons of water is required to produce one ton of food grains. It’s not surprising, then, that international disputes about water have increasingly been replicated among states in India, where the Supreme Court is frequently asked to intervene.

So have the policy responses been proportional to the gravity of the demographic, ecological and developmental problems facing India?

The probable answer is that policy makers have failed miserably on all measurable counts. If one compares India to China this becomes clear. While China’s one-child policy has been criticised as against human dignity and rights — and there is no denying that such measures should be avoided as far as possible — the history of human civilization teaches us that extreme situations call for extreme actions. There will be ample time for multiple schools to have their post-mortems on the success and failure of the one-child policy, but it has helped China to control its population by a possible 400 million people.

The US Census Bureau estimated in 2010 that China will hit its peak population of 1.4 billion in around 2026. China’s fertility rate has been lower than the replacement rate for more than two decades now. That means the one-child policy will have taken nearly 40 years to stabilise or reverse China’s population trend. How long will India take to get to that stage?

There is a distinct possibility of irreversible and unsustainable population growth and big question marks remain over how India will provide nearly 1.7 billion people with their basic minimum demands. In this environment to raise an alarm that turns out to be false is better than relying on comfortable slogans like the demographic dividend. The longer India delays acknowledging the severity of these problems and dealing with them head on, the graver the consequences are likely to be.

Ranjit Goswami is Dean (Academics) at the Institute of Management Technology, Nagpur.

Modi’s foreign policy performance

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Sandeep Phukan

I had covered international summits before as well – the Sapporo G8 summit in 2008 when PM Dr Manmohan Singh went to Japan defying the Left to push ahead with the nuke deal – but the Brisbane G20 summit and Prime Minister Modi’s five-day trip to Australia was certainly a different experience.

First, an Indian Prime Minister was traveling Down Under after a gap of 28 years. Predictably, the PM’s calendar was packed: unveiling a statue of Mahatma Gandhi, pitching the “Make in India” campaign to Australian CEOs, meetings with Aussie politicians, addressing a joint session of the Australian Parliament, attending a reception by the Indian diaspora at a venue usually reserved for touring rockstars and finally, a banquet at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.

Now, if you consider that all these and a few more events were spread over two-and-a half days across four cities, it simply meant the PM was engaged from 8 am in the morning to 10 pm at night. For Indian journalists, the challenge, of course, was to make it on time from one event to another. True, as many of the events were “open only to the official media,” it gave us some much-needed breathing space.

Chacha Nehru’s birthday at Tech Campus:

Prime Minister Modi arrived at Brisbane a day before the G20 officially kicked off on November 15. But that didn’t mean he would have any free time for himself.

Almost immediately, he got down to business. He visited the Queensland University of Technology, agreed to get selfies done with enthusiastic students, many of whom were from India. Later, the PM tweeted about spending the day at a campus on Pandit Nehru’s birth anniversary.

The Cameron Exchange and a missed opportunity:

The same evening, British Prime Minister David Cameron was the first foreign leader PM Modi had a bilateral meeting with. I had gone to cover the meeting but learnt that the photo-op was open only to the “official” media. The British PM, however, may want to give a short sound bite after the two PMs had met, his media team informed. I wasn’t willing to let it go.

“Ok guys, where do you want me to do this,” asked Mr Cameron as he walked in after meeting his Indian counterpart. My colleague, Suresh Kumar, asked him to stand in a particular way and Mr Cameron sportingly obliged. In the next five minutes, Mr Cameron described his meeting as excellent and informed that he had invited Mr Modi to visit Britain.

So what did they discuss? Apart from economic issues, Mr Cameron stressed on security challenges: “Both agree that we have to challenge the narrative of extremism and violence.”

As I walked out, I saw PM Modi engrossed in conversation with the National Security Advisor, Mr Ajit Doval about 50 feet away. There were no journalists around. Here was my chance to get an exclusive bite. Should I just walk up and ask him for a soundbite? The atmosphere in the room was formal, actually quite overwhelming! There was no way I could shout out, what we usually do to attract attention for a soundbite.

Shouldn’t I just wait for the PM to look towards us? The moment he see us, I will pop the question: Sir, how was your meeting?

I am not sure if he noticed at all. Dressed in a smart pair of khakis and a jacket, he seemed immersed in conversation even as he started walking away. Before I could tip toe my way to the PM, he was already heading for his next engagement: a dinner meeting with Shinzo Abe.

I spent the rest of the night, regretting my “missed” opportunity to get a soundbite from the PM. That opportunity came less than 48 hours later. Mr Modi was unveiling the statute of the Mahatma at the Roma Park. The Indian media was there, in full force, to cover the event. While most others placed their cameras in front of the stage where the PM was scheduled to speak, we parked ourselves right in front of the Gandhi statue. There was one more TV crew waiting there and another joined in.

As soon as PM unveiled the statue and got a group photo clicked with the organizers, I shouted out: “Prime Minister sir! Would you… would you please speak to us?” I took my chance even though less than 5 minutes ago, he had spoken and shared his thoughts on his Australia visit. The Prime Minister sportingly obliged the camerapersons for the perfect frame, stood next to the statue, gave us a smile and left with a Namaste!

Breaking the security protocol:

“Modi, Modi, Modi!!” Wherever the PM went, his admirers and supporters would line up the venue, fill the air with chants and slogans, often prompting the PM to break his protocol, get out of his security ring and meet people, shake hands or even pose for a selfie!

In Sydney, right next to the Allphones Arena, a group of about 100 protesters were protesting against the PM. Their complaint: the BJP, during their earlier stint in power, didn’t do much to ensure justice to the victims of 1984.But the protesters were clearly outnumbered before a 16,000-strong crowd who had gathered to listen to the PM.

At the Melbourne Cricket Ground, Australian PM Tony Abbot hosted a banquet in honor of Mr Modi, crowds had gathered by 3 in the afternoon. Could it be because of the cricketing legends? After all, how often do you see Sunil Gavaskar, Allan Border, Kapil Dev, Glen McGrath, Laxman, Steve Waugh or Dean Jones together?

“No, we have come to see our Prime Minister,” said a couple from Bangalore, who were on a vacation in Australia and New Zealand. They were meant to fly out of New Zealand but changed their plan and came back to Australia. Could they not have seen him in India? “Yes but here, we hope to meet him as security is not so strict,” said the wife.

By the time the banquet ended, it was 10pm. The weather had suddenly turned quite cold with a constant breeze. The number of people waiting to meet the PM was no more than 50, perhaps one-fifth of what we saw in the evening. But the moment he walked, there was frenzy once again!

Apart from his scheduled speeches, including the one at the Australian Parliament, Prime Minister Modi didn’t give any soundbite or hold a press conference for the Indian journalists who followed him everywhere. But he kept his followers updated with his tweets, text of his speeches or video links to his programs. So is anyone really complaining?

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed within this blog are the personal opinions of the author. NDTV is not responsible for the accuracy, completeness, suitability, or validity of any information on this blog. All information is provided on an as-is basis. The information, facts or opinions appearing on the blog do not reflect the views of NDTV and NDTV does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same. (NDTV)

Sri Lanka: A Silent Revolution

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Asanga Abeyagoonasekera

The dramatic build-up to the Presidential election in Sri Lanka on 08 January 2015 turned out a silent revolution. The common candidate who ran against the then President Rajapaksa was from within his Government. President Sirisena’s intended crossover pre-election was planned in utmost silence. Earlier commentaries published under this column over 2014 also reflected this trend in the regime’s character. “Stronger Democratic Values for a Better Tomorrow” and “Train to Jaffna” demonstrated why a largely popular regime could lose its governance focus despite being the very regime that ended a three-decade war. Both these commentaries were questioned by the former secretary to the Ministry of External Affairs as to why this author’s expression illustrated sentiments against government policies. In response, this author maintained that these were recommendations to the government to strengthen its democratic values, and questioning questionable policy was one’s right to the freedom of expression. This month’s column is written in a free political environment.

Less than 500,000 votes gave President Sirisena his victory. Much of the voter base responsible for the political overhaul lay in the majority of the minority population and the rest on the floating vote and new voters featuring strongly the social media generation. Over the final three weeks of the election campaign, social media was used as a tool to expose the Rajapaksa regime of allegations which could not be effectively countered on the same platform. Of nearly 1.5 million users of social media active on the election platform, a majority expressed the need for change by voting or otherwise. This was the silent revolution similar to the format in many places that toppled strong regimes, such as in the Middle East, and geographically closest to Sri Lanka, India.

This change expressed by voters was democratically achieved. The new interim budget introduced this year isa great relief to many common citizens who would feel great relief from the high cost of living. The RTI (Right to Information Act), repealing of 18th amendment and bringing back the 17th amendment to secure Independent Commissions will cement the aim towards good governance and restoring citizen power. After RTI, websites such as that report on corruption and quantify the amount of corruption could be strengthened like in India. Political corruption could be minimised by introducing new tools, for example for the Election Commissioner to understand the growth of assets of individual political candidates, to analyse the difference of asset growth from election to election, and to see the growth of assets of politicians. RTI will also give power to ordinary citizens to question the ministries, provincial, local councils and departments of their budget allocation and spending.

Sri Lanka, with its new administration, will need to do some serious reforms especially to strengthen the loss-making institutions, fight corruption and introduce meritocracy at all levels. The journey from 2009 after winning the war from a factor-driven economy to a efficiency-driven economy is an improvement but to qualify to the next level – an innovation-driven economy – energy must be focused on producing the best knowledge workers and invest in innovation and R&D. Sri Lanka, with its ancient history, was a nation of great engineers who built amazing irrigation systems. This will have to be emulated to restart its role in innovation by creating the right eco system.

The importance of innovation to a society was discussed at the foot hills of Davos earlier in January 2015, where this author participated as a Young Global Leader from Sri Lanka. The World Economic Forum was founded more than four decades ago by Prof Klaus Schwab, a visionary who got the great minds of the world to Davos to discuss global issues and design solutions. This time, the theme was “the new global context.” It is evident that the horrors by many terrorist extremist groups, the economic instability and social political changes that are taking place are the reasons for a new global context with a better vision and direction by our leaders. The massacres in Paris, Nigeria and Peshawar threaten democratic values. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said, “This year has started with a bang that shook us to the core. This terrible attack against Jewish citizens, journalists and police forces in Paris shows us all that we are facing challenges that don’t stop at the borders of Europe.” The millions that rallied in France with forty world leaders was a great example of the existing strength to preserve the true values of democracy. Trust is another area that needs to improve. As Prof Schwab said, “How can we restore trust in our future in our institutions? Trust is not only related to ethical behaviour. Trust means a leadership responsibility, where you respond to the needs of those who have trusted you with leadership.” The contribution from science and technology discussions explained many developments in information management, DNA, robotics, brain science and many more including the neural processing units (NPU) that will transform the computational processing when commercialised this year.

2015 ushers in an era that strengthens the citizen’s power through technology. It was clear from the usage of social media in the Sri Lankan elections. The traditional processes of election rallies and massive political campaigns played a negative role as most citizens are owners of a super computer in their hand. The processing power of today’s smart phone is equal to a super computer of several decades ago. The transition manifested in Sri Lanka’s political overhaul towards good governance. This transfer of power to the citizens is a positive thatmust be strengthened and used to its fullest over the coming months and years.

As Rousseau says “Man is born free and everywhere he is in chains” – it seems modern technology has helped to break the chains and empower individuals for the silent revolution.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not reflect those of the government of Sri Lanka or the Lakshman Kadirgamar Institute of International Relations and Strategic Studies (LKIIRSS), Sri Lanka.

The goal of my life

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Dr. Bushra Ahmed

The University of Bedfordshire celebrated International Women’s Day this week with a journey through the life of one of its most successful scientists.

Dr Bushra Ahmed, Course Leader for BSc Biomedical Science and Portfolio Leader for Postgraduate Courses at the Department of Life Sciences, took staff and students through her experiences across the world, from humble beginnings in Pakistan, to spells in Japan, the Netherlands and the USA, culminating with a ten-year stint here, at Bedfordshire.

Speaking two days after Women’s Day, Bushra acknowledged that “there are so many problems that come in your life but you just have to go on”.

She added: “It [being a woman] was a minor problem earlier on. When I got a scholarship in America, the only reason I was not allowed to go alone was because I was a girl.

“My brother went abroad and was not stopped. My mum never differentiated between a girl or a boy but she was worried about the society.”

Despite that, Bushra, Principal Lecturer in Biochemistry, never strayed from her path to becoming a neuroscientist.

Bushra’s fascination with the human brain led to last year’s breakthrough discovery that neurons in patients with Parkinson’s disease die as they cannot detoxify the chemicals produced during metabolic reactions that are normally non-toxic in unaffected individuals.

The next step in Bushra’s journey is to prevent those cells from dying and, ultimately, invent a cure for Parkinson’s disease.

“During my breakthrough one and a half years ago, I was just looking at one cell,” said Bushra.” It’s important to find where the fault is; we need to find the mechanism of the fault and correct it.

“That’s something that I’m working on. If I am able to save this neuron, that means we are going to save lives.

“That’s the goal of my life. So far, whatever I have planned, I have achieved.”

How Budget reforms can help Modi’s “Make in India” campaign

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By Girish Vanvari

(Any opinions expressed here are those of the author and not necessarily those of Thomson Reuters)

The government’s “Make in India” initiative is being closely followed by Indian companies and foreign investors. A lot of hope rests on the BJP government’s first full-year budget following its victory in last year’s general election as the announcements made by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley will impact the investment cycle.

Some reforms that will help the “Make in India” campaign are:

A stable tax regime – Reforms proposed in the budget should be in line with the long-term vision for India. There should be no surprise addition of taxes or removal of tax holidays or deductions.

Clarity on tax law – Taxation in India is subject to multiple interpretations by the taxpayer and the tax department, and some of them need to be addressed at the earliest. For example, the rule on taxability of offshore transactions resulting in an indirect transfer of assets in India needs clarification. The government should come out with detailed guidelines on the methodology to compute the tax liability in India in case of such indirect transfers. The deferment of General Anti-Avoidance Rules till the tax regime stabilizes would be helpful.

Further, there are many industry-wide tax issues wherein tax officers in different jurisdictions have taken different positions. The government needs to set up a panel which would address specific industry issues, and the same should be made enforceable through the country.

Tax sops for investment in key sectors and reduction in the Minimum Alternate Tax (MAT) rate – Tax holidays for new manufacturing facilities set up across sectors would boost investment. Such new facilities should not be subject to taxes under the MAT regime. Also, the existing MAT rate should be reduced for units currently availing tax holidays.

Implementation of GST – Implementation of a nationwide goods and services tax (GST) and removal of the numerous indirect tax laws would have a major impact on businesses. A clear roadmap for implementation of GST would enable investors to take calculated calls on their investment/expansion plans in India.

Transparent and quick resolution of disputes – Increasing the scope and power of the Dispute Resolution Panel could help tackle the long list of unresolved litigation matters. Also, additional benches of the Authority of Advance Rulings (AAR) would strengthen the tax tribunal and result in speedy disposal of applications for advance rulings.

Transfer Pricing – Introduction of the concept of the rollback provisions for advance pricing agreements (APAs) in the 2014 budget was a welcome move. One expects the necessary legislative amendments being introduced in the upcoming budget to prescribe the extent and manner of the applicability of these provisions.

Going forward, the government should consider creating a financial zone to turn India into a manufacturing hub. Benefits such as lower taxes, no permanent establishment issue and non-applicability of transfer pricing provisions could be provided to businesses in this zone. They would act as enablers to convince firms to conduct their business without having to worry about the tax consequences on their overseas income in India.

Can India close the wealth gap?

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By Karishma Vaswani, BBC

Many of India’s poor are being left behind by the speed of change
Sixty years after India was freed from British colonial rule, the country’s economy is booming. But will the wealth be shared more equally in the future?

On the eve of independence India’s newly elected Prime Minister Jawarlahal Nehru made an impassioned and oft-quoted speech saying India had made a tryst with destiny.

At the time he was talking about India’s struggle to gain the right to govern itself and to make its own decisions about its future, be they political or economic.

It was an austere, simple time when idealism was at its height and the distribution of wealth was a priority.

Today, it would seem that India has taken a slightly different route towards its destiny.

‘Not enough’

In Mumbai, India’s financial capital, symbols of India’s economic success are all around – from flashy billboards advertising the latest perfumes to trendy young women dressed in the latest Tommy jeans.

The India of today is vibrant, confident and ambitious – and not afraid to show it.

Take Rishi Rajani for example. The 30-something garment tycoon based in Mumbai and Denmark is a self-confessed workaholic who also loves the good life.

His latest acquisition is a black Porsche sports car, which he drives through the streets of Mumbai.

In the money capital of India, flaunting your wealth is now fashionable.

Mr Rajani has always dreamed of owning the mean machine, and now his dream is a reality thanks to the success of the economy and his business.

“I work hard, you know, for my money”, he says. “And I need a reward. This is my reward.

“But it’s not enough. My next goal? A yacht. That’s when I’ll know I’ve really made it. I’m already working towards it.”

Fast city

This is the stuff dreams are made of.

Fast life, fast city – money in Mumbai cannot be spent or made quickly enough.

And it is this dream that leads millions of migrants to the city every single day.

They come here in packs, having heard legendary tales of Mumbai’s streets being paved with gold.

Travelling thousands of miles by train, they leave behind their families, their friends and their desperate lives.

Many end up in the one of the city’s numerous slums and struggling to survive by doing odd jobs on the street.

The city they came to conquer, ends up engulfing them.

Demolition job

Saunji Kesarwadi is a potter by profession who lives in a 10×10 foot flat in Dharavi, Asia’s biggest slum.

Dharavi in Mumbai
Many of India’s poor live within sight of the wealthier people

In this box, he works and supports a family of six who live in the attic.

Barely eking out an existence, he fears being thrown out of his home to make way for development.

“We hear the builders are coming,” Mr Kesarwadi says as his two little girls look on.

“But no one has told us anything. They say they’ll give us a flat if we sell them this land – but how can all of us leave? This is where my work, my life is. It may not be much but it’s all I have.”

But while life in the big city often falls short of expectations, thanks to the growth in the country’s economy there are new opportunities in some villages.

Rural choice

Some 300 kilometres away from India’s technology capital, Bangalore, lies Bellary – an industrial town born out of a sleepy village.

When you first arrive, all you can see is dusty farmland for miles around. But behind the quiet exterior, there is a dramatic change afoot.

Bellary is home to one of India’s first rural outsourcing centres, run by Indian steel maker JSW Steel Limited.

The organisation has started two small operations on its Bellary campus, hiring young women from nearby villages to work in their rural processing centres.

Here the girls spend their shifts punching in details of American patients’ dental records, typing in a language many of them have only recently learned, using a machine many had never seen or heard of before.

Twenty-year-old Savithri Amma has a basic high school diploma. She earns about $80 (£40) a month doing this work – the same as one of her peers might earn working as a house-help in Mumbai.

For that money she has to turn up to work every week day by 7am – picked up from her village by a JSW bus at 5am and taken home when her shift ends at 3pm.

“At first, when I started this job, my parents were sceptical,” she says shyly.

“Girls here used to never go out – but now we can because our position in life has improved financially and socially thanks to our work here. My father makes a little more than I do every month.

“I’m proud to contribute to the family finances.”

Growth promise

In Ms Amma’s village, she is looked upon as a role model for many of her peers.

The daily evening prayers at the village temple are a time for her to reflect on her day’s work, and give thanks to the ancient Hindu gods for her good fortune.

She has much to be thankful for. Ms Amma is one of the lucky ones, she is someone who did not have to leave home to battle the millions in urban India to survive.

Growth in India’s economy has to make its way off the streets of Mumbai and Delhi and into all of India’s villages.

Only when it does will it truly be here to stay – and the promise of independence will be met.

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